During the past year the median price of a LA house has gone up by abt 24 percent but the median home rent has gone up by less that 4 pct.
Prices are up and earnings are not.
Sound like a bubble?
Remember 1990?
Loan originations are way off from a few months ago.
This past week in Northern LA Cty(Santa Clarita and Antelope Valleys) 90 homes had NOD filed and 40 had NTS filed.
I paid $95 to listen this coming Thursday to 3 poo bahs tell us the future of California RE - sponsored by Newhall Land - Prof from UCLA Anderson school, prof from UC Berkley and Sr Economist Calif State controllers office.
I expect they will pump us full of baloney - but will share after its over.
I don't believe in national bubbles, I believe in only local bubbles (absent anything like the horrendous Tax Reform Act of '86).
And I don't believe bubbles burst terribly often. They only deflate a little, then get real quiet for a few years. Real "bubbles" that burst are typically fraud, or a local job market that's unsustainably hot (Silicon Valley).
As for the signs....
There were approximately 70 Lis Pendens filed in Hillsborough County, FL on 10/28/2003 (I didn't check all 7 pages online, but a page of twenty entries yielded twelve unique cases, and I don't know how full page 7 is, so 70 is my number). Same date last year there were six such pages.
I don't consider that too signficant of a jump.
Of course, the Middle District of Florida is the Bankruptcy capital of the world, and we have the foreclosures to go along with it.
But we also have plenty of new construction, now leaking into Pasco County and Californicating up I-4 past Plant City and Lakeland into the newly named "Posner Park" (after the late Victor Posner, who made Wayne Huizenga look like a choirboy).
YMMV, everyone. Look for small, localized bubbles, not a big dome to come crashing down on your heads.
hi flacorps
what the heck is californicating
i live in plant city and want to know more about this bubble sounds like things may get better im still a newbee looking for my first deel but im sure its coming soon
Quote:
On 2003-11-04 23:38, roberttissy wrote:
hi flacorps
what the heck is californicating Californicating is the tendency of housing to spring up along exits of limited access highway. It only makes sense from the developers' perspective and the homebuyers' perspective, but from a planning perspective it has an annoying tendency to leave underdeveloped gaps ... leading to inefficiencies in the ability to provide services and other evils too numerous to list.
What happens in the real world of me and you is hated in the ivory towers of academia and government.
Of course there is a middle ground that should be sought.
I think the bubble is regional too and it had already burts in some more depressed part of the country.
In CA (Sacto) where I live many people live off their equity in their house, jobs are non-existent and cashflow as the 'gurus' say is dry like it was in the Sahara.
This is why I am thinking of reloating my family to LV, there I could work NV and South Cal.
Californicating is a 'song' - so get it straight
P.S. Austin Texas had huge bubble in the early 90's (can't remember the exact time) I was there however and new houses were used as dildos for new and naive house buyers. I don't know the older house market....there was a bubble for the nice brick houses in the Hill country. [ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]
Investors make money no matter the situation. If you are planning on giving up and walking away because times change. You need to look at the way your doing business. You need to be flexible to be a investor and creative. So no matter what the economic condition you prosper. We as investors are not subject to layoffs and the whims of others. Get used to it. Its the American way.
You sound very smart - the american way! Wow.
Now I don't know how well you are doing already but I suspect you took many courses and read many books from the RA-RA crowd.
Now every moron was a stock-market guru in the last bull market I suspect this is like the case in many real estate investements and more deals go sour in a sideways or down market.
Quote:
On 2003-11-05 11:47, moneyprivate wrote:
Investors make money no matter the situation. If you are planning on giving up and walking away because times change. You need to look at the way your doing business. You need to be flexible to be a investor and creative. So no matter what the economic condition you prosper. We as investors are not subject to layoffs and the whims of others. Get used to it. Its the American way.
[ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]
My sainted Grandfather went short in the 1929 Crash. He ceased the practice of international law and then did what he had always wanted to do. Built strange little houses in West Los Angeles.
Now here I was going to be real clever and tell you how I spot in my own sick little area the beginning of a downward trend. But you all have covered it.
Years ago for you computer nerds, I belonged to an organization that was called "The Club Of Rome" They did a computer program in which they balanced the ability to produce food against the growth of populations and they arrifved at a point in time (long past) when the world would no longer be able to feed its huddled masses. They came up with a funny axiom "Populations increase geometricaly while food supplies increase arithmeticaly." Malthus. Pure unadulterated BS..
Well guess what a few changes in how foods were grown and developed and smash the program failed and a lot of very intelligent people realized that they had missed some very important items of imput. Like reality.
What I observe is of course the Notice of Default in relationship to the Actual Amount of Trustee Sales conducted. An one additional statistic the amount of loans paid off or brought current during the time of the Notice of Default. the movement of these three variables has been very accurate for me over the last 20 years or so. That gives us statistical imput as to our share of the Radish. It is true a lot of people have been living on the equity of their homes, and the upward price surge has maintained it. But now that sales are steadying that option may not be available and a down trend develops.
Californicating A peculiar occurance limited to persons residing in and around California. It consists of looking and talking rather then actual doing. Something like a Menage a Tres where two of the participants are reading books.
Those who did not quite get it....
The reason of my post was the different tactics and rationale one should employ in a sideways down market in RE versus the buy and hold re investing that made lots of money. Buy and hold with renting maybe ok as more and more people are broke to buy anything but loath to live in apartments. I suspect the safe way is still bargain buying, rehabbing and flipping.
[ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]
Dear Andrasen,
I check your profile and there is nothing. Could you please post just how you know the Bubble is about to break?
I Lucius noh Foster am also in California and I agree. I will tell you my sources if you will tell me yours. You first.
Now don't tell me you read Tarot Cards or have an in with one of the minor saints of finance. I want the real stuff.
Greenspan is out. He cuts to the middle too often and I think he gets a small stipend from Uncle Sam. He is to coin a phrase too Reserved.
But there is a wind arising and I am calculating like crazy cause I got caught once and have the blisters to prove it.
I'll give you all the Academic stuff but we both know thats not where it is at.
Come on now fess up I await with baited and bated breath.
Curious Lucius
and observe economics. I also develop computer models for trends in commodities. (I admit this has little to do with RE)
Lucius
I'll show you mine if ...
During the past year the median price of a LA house has gone up by abt 24 percent but the median home rent has gone up by less that 4 pct.
Prices are up and earnings are not.
Sound like a bubble?
Remember 1990?
Loan originations are way off from a few months ago.
This past week in Northern LA Cty(Santa Clarita and Antelope Valleys) 90 homes had NOD filed and 40 had NTS filed.
I paid $95 to listen this coming Thursday to 3 poo bahs tell us the future of California RE - sponsored by Newhall Land - Prof from UCLA Anderson school, prof from UC Berkley and Sr Economist Calif State controllers office.
I expect they will pump us full of baloney - but will share after its over.
OK - now lets see yours.
Dick
What bubble is about? Tune everyone in to the bubble please!
Let it burst....
Bring on the deals....
its all good...if you manage your investing accordingly....
_________________
If it dont make dollars...it dont make sense!
And im from Toronto....NOT Beverly hills![ Edited by dare2003 on Date 11/04/2003 ]
I don't believe in national bubbles, I believe in only local bubbles (absent anything like the horrendous Tax Reform Act of '86).
And I don't believe bubbles burst terribly often. They only deflate a little, then get real quiet for a few years. Real "bubbles" that burst are typically fraud, or a local job market that's unsustainably hot (Silicon Valley).
As for the signs....
There were approximately 70 Lis Pendens filed in Hillsborough County, FL on 10/28/2003 (I didn't check all 7 pages online, but a page of twenty entries yielded twelve unique cases, and I don't know how full page 7 is, so 70 is my number). Same date last year there were six such pages.
I don't consider that too signficant of a jump.
Of course, the Middle District of Florida is the Bankruptcy capital of the world, and we have the foreclosures to go along with it.
But we also have plenty of new construction, now leaking into Pasco County and Californicating up I-4 past Plant City and Lakeland into the newly named "Posner Park" (after the late Victor Posner, who made Wayne Huizenga look like a choirboy).
YMMV, everyone. Look for small, localized bubbles, not a big dome to come crashing down on your heads.
hi flacorps
what the heck is californicating
i live in plant city and want to know more about this bubble sounds like things may get better im still a newbee looking for my first deel but im sure its coming soon
robert
roberttissy,
lol are you referring to your first deal or the bubble bursting.
[addsig]
Quote:
On 2003-11-04 23:38, roberttissy wrote:
hi flacorps
what the heck is californicating Californicating is the tendency of housing to spring up along exits of limited access highway. It only makes sense from the developers' perspective and the homebuyers' perspective, but from a planning perspective it has an annoying tendency to leave underdeveloped gaps ... leading to inefficiencies in the ability to provide services and other evils too numerous to list.
What happens in the real world of me and you is hated in the ivory towers of academia and government.
Of course there is a middle ground that should be sought.
May the bottom feeders of the world prosper in the middle ground!
[addsig]
I think the bubble is regional too and it had already burts in some more depressed part of the country.
In CA (Sacto) where I live many people live off their equity in their house, jobs are non-existent and cashflow as the 'gurus' say is dry like it was in the Sahara.
This is why I am thinking of reloating my family to LV, there I could work NV and South Cal.
Californicating is a 'song' - so get it straight
P.S. Austin Texas had huge bubble in the early 90's (can't remember the exact time) I was there however and new houses were used as dildos for new and naive house buyers. I don't know the older house market....there was a bubble for the nice brick houses in the Hill country. [ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]
Investors make money no matter the situation. If you are planning on giving up and walking away because times change. You need to look at the way your doing business. You need to be flexible to be a investor and creative. So no matter what the economic condition you prosper. We as investors are not subject to layoffs and the whims of others. Get used to it. Its the American way.
Moneyprivate,
MY THOUGHTS EXACTLY!!!!
You sound very smart - the american way! Wow.
Now I don't know how well you are doing already but I suspect you took many courses and read many books from the RA-RA crowd.
Now every moron was a stock-market guru in the last bull market I suspect this is like the case in many real estate investements and more deals go sour in a sideways or down market.
Quote:
On 2003-11-05 11:47, moneyprivate wrote:
Investors make money no matter the situation. If you are planning on giving up and walking away because times change. You need to look at the way your doing business. You need to be flexible to be a investor and creative. So no matter what the economic condition you prosper. We as investors are not subject to layoffs and the whims of others. Get used to it. Its the American way.
[ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]
One economist said that a good economic indicator is, Freight Car loading activity.
I observed that, alcohol consumption has increased dramatically.
My conclusion is that, people are getting more loaded than freight cars.
Lufos: Greespan----to coin a phrase--too Reserved??? You should be thrashed.
There's dinero to be made in both boom
and bust cycles of Real Estate.
Money Private you are dead right.
My sainted Grandfather went short in the 1929 Crash. He ceased the practice of international law and then did what he had always wanted to do. Built strange little houses in West Los Angeles.
Now here I was going to be real clever and tell you how I spot in my own sick little area the beginning of a downward trend. But you all have covered it.
Years ago for you computer nerds, I belonged to an organization that was called "The Club Of Rome" They did a computer program in which they balanced the ability to produce food against the growth of populations and they arrifved at a point in time (long past) when the world would no longer be able to feed its huddled masses. They came up with a funny axiom "Populations increase geometricaly while food supplies increase arithmeticaly." Malthus. Pure unadulterated BS..
Well guess what a few changes in how foods were grown and developed and smash the program failed and a lot of very intelligent people realized that they had missed some very important items of imput. Like reality.
What I observe is of course the Notice of Default in relationship to the Actual Amount of Trustee Sales conducted. An one additional statistic the amount of loans paid off or brought current during the time of the Notice of Default. the movement of these three variables has been very accurate for me over the last 20 years or so. That gives us statistical imput as to our share of the Radish. It is true a lot of people have been living on the equity of their homes, and the upward price surge has maintained it. But now that sales are steadying that option may not be available and a down trend develops.
Californicating A peculiar occurance limited to persons residing in and around California. It consists of looking and talking rather then actual doing. Something like a Menage a Tres where two of the participants are reading books.
remind me to hide the books
Lucius
Those who did not quite get it....
The reason of my post was the different tactics and rationale one should employ in a sideways down market in RE versus the buy and hold re investing that made lots of money. Buy and hold with renting maybe ok as more and more people are broke to buy anything but loath to live in apartments. I suspect the safe way is still bargain buying, rehabbing and flipping.
[ Edited by andrasnm on Date 11/05/2003 ]